tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-83733402691899913442024-03-13T16:39:18.457-07:00The Impending World Energy MessApogee Primehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17173826990836348454noreply@blogger.comBlogger26125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8373340269189991344.post-59984890540882645122011-05-02T10:04:00.000-07:002011-05-02T10:04:17.208-07:00Oil supply problem may be imminentThe IEA's chief economist admits an oil supply problem may be imminent. Follow <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/catalyst/stories/3201781.htm">link </a>for details.Apogee Primehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17173826990836348454noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8373340269189991344.post-74416733975897322182011-04-14T09:37:00.000-07:002011-04-14T09:37:22.383-07:00New Kindle edition of Impending World Energy Mess now available on AmazonApogee Prime announces new Kindle edition of Robert Hirsch, Roger Bezdek and Robert Wendling's book <i><b>The Impending World Energy Mess</b></i>. For more information click <a href="http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_sb_noss?url=search-alias%3Ddigital-text&field-keywords=The+Impending+World+Energy+Mess&x=0&y=0">here</a>.Apogee Primehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17173826990836348454noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8373340269189991344.post-22127442498713652092011-03-28T09:40:00.000-07:002011-03-28T09:40:46.293-07:00Latest from Tom Whipple and Peak Oil ReviewClick <a href="http://www.apogeeprime.com/prime/hirsch/POR110328.pdf">here </a>to read the latest from The Peak Oil Review with Tom Whipple's analysis of the current political and economic situation regarding energy. Subjects covered included the Japanese reactor problems and Middle Eastern unrest. Commentary by Robert Hirsch at the end.Apogee Primehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17173826990836348454noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8373340269189991344.post-38137063602105408652011-02-28T16:28:00.000-08:002011-02-28T16:28:37.718-08:00Robert Hirsch Podcast and Webcast. Feb 25th 2011Dr Hirsch appeared on the Space Show for over an hour and a half. Listen to his latest discussion on the impending world energy mess <a href="http://thespaceshow.com/detail.asp?q=1517">here</a>. Dr Hirsch discussed alternative energy, politics and many other energy related issues during this excellent interview and Q&A session.Apogee Primehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17173826990836348454noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8373340269189991344.post-45911932401293232011-02-23T15:30:00.000-08:002011-02-23T15:30:27.588-08:00Robert Hirsch explains reasons how oil flow can be restrictedRestrictions on world oil production can be divided into four categories: <br />
<br />
1. Geology <br />
2. Legitimate National Interests <br />
3. Mismanagement <br />
4. Political Upheaval <br />
<br />
Consider each in reverse order: <br />
<br />
Political upheaval is currently rampant across the Middle East, resulting in a major spike in world oil prices. No one knows how far the impacts will go or how long it will take to reach some kind of stability and what that stability will mean to oil production in the Middle Eastern countries that produce oil. We are thus relegated to best guesses, which span weeks, months, or years before there are clear resolutions. One pre-Middle East chaos country limited by political upheaval is Iraq, which is believed to have the oil reserves to produce at a much higher level, but Iraqi government chaos has severely limited oil production expansion. In another long-standing case, Nigeria has been plagued by internal political strife, which has negatively impacted its oil production. <br />
<br />
Mismanagement of oil production within a country can be due to a variety of factors, all of which mean lower oil production than would otherwise be the case. Venezuela is the poster child of national mismanagement. The country has huge resources of heavy oil that could be produced at much higher rates. Underproduction is due to the government syphoning off so much cash flow that oil production operations are starved for needed funds. In addition, Venezuela has made it extremely difficult, if not impossible for foreign oil companies to operate in the country. Another example of mismanagement is Mexico, where government confiscation of oil revenues, substandard technology, and restrictions on foreign investment have lead to significant Mexican oil production decline. <br />
<br />
Legitimate national interests include decisions by governments to husband their oil reserves for the long-term benefit of their people. This occurs in various ways, some of them subtle. Not so subtle is the Saudi King's decree that any new oil fields discovered in the near future will not be developed in order that new discoveries can benefit Saudis in future years. <br />
<br />
Then there is geology, which is the ultimate restriction. Oil is a finite resource. We will never produce more oil than nature provided over millions and billions of year. All that's there is called the oil resource, but we can only produce what is called the "reserves," which is a fraction of the resource. Why? Because the geology associated with each oil deposit sets a practical limit on ultimate production. In a few cases, reserves can total up to half of a local resource. In others, reserves can amount to no more than a few percent of the resource. Typically, reserves are around 30% of the resource. If you think we should be able to do better than 30% on average, take some time to look at some oil reservoirs rock cores. The complexity is often mind boggling. <br />
<br />
What's this all boil down to? Based on geology, many analysts have forecast the onset of the decline of world oil production in the next 2-5 years. Legitimate national interests, mismanagement, and political upheaval can only hasten that onset. To explain these and other energy issues we wrote the book entitled "The Impending World Energy Mess." Oil production is a very complicated activity. What happens in oil will impact all of us, so it's worth some study.<br />
<br />
Robert HirschApogee Primehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17173826990836348454noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8373340269189991344.post-21117898801570421042011-02-09T08:24:00.000-08:002011-02-09T08:24:54.373-08:00Robert Hirsch comments on Wikileaks releaseYesterday's Wikileaks release of a confidential 2007 State Department message on Saudi oil can be summarized as follows: <br />
<br />
The actual Saudi oil resource (oil-in-place) is not the publicly claimed 700 billion barrels but roughly 400 billion barrels. With an optimistic recovery of 50%, that means reserves were roughly 200 billion barrels. Saudi production-to-date is around 100 billion barrels, so Saudi oil production is near its reserves midpoint, after which production will begin to decline. If that is indeed the situation, the world oil production outlook is congruent with the forecast of many (Hirsch et al, DOD, others) of near-term world oil production decline and the DOE forecast is "less informed." <br />
<br />
Sadad al-Husseni is an outstanding geologist and petroleum engineer and has had more access to Aramco and Middle East oil data than virtually anyone ever. <br />
<br />
The full Wikileaks release can be found at <a href="http://www.wikileaks.la/us-embassy-cables-saudi-oil-company-oversold-ability-to-increase-production-embassy-told/">http://www.wikileaks.la/us-embassy-cables-saudi-oil-company-oversold-ability-to-increase-production-embassy-told/</a> It's a little confused in places but still quite clear.Apogee Primehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17173826990836348454noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8373340269189991344.post-60255973533236108282011-01-04T13:36:00.000-08:002011-01-04T13:36:06.423-08:00The Peak Oil Crisis: The Future of Government by Tom WhippleAnother insightful article by Tom Whipple can be found <a href="http://www.google.ca/url?sa=t&source=web&cd=1&sqi=2&ved=0CBwQFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.energybulletin.net%2Fstories%2F2010-12-08%2Fpeak-oil-crisis-future-government&rct=j&q=The%20Peak%20Oil%20Crisis%3A%20The%20Future%20of%20Government&ei=gpIjTaHsG8TEswbakeHZDA&usg=AFQjCNHq9rayldreviL-V99TxEGK0GE9Og&sig2=RCE-FA51UcIXckprvBau-Q&cad=rja">here</a>.Apogee Primehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17173826990836348454noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8373340269189991344.post-75415209378465500962011-01-04T13:33:00.000-08:002011-01-04T13:33:27.614-08:00Spin slips off oil production numbers – World Energy Outlook 2010 is a cry for help<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <o:OfficeDocumentSettings> <o:AllowPNG/> </o:OfficeDocumentSettings> </xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:WordDocument> <w:View>Normal</w:View> <w:Zoom>0</w:Zoom> <w:TrackMoves/> <w:TrackFormatting/> <w:DoNotShowRevisions/> <w:DoNotPrintRevisions/> <w:DoNotShowMarkup/> <w:DoNotShowComments/> <w:DoNotShowInsertionsAndDeletions/> <w:DoNotShowPropertyChanges/> <w:PunctuationKerning/> <w:ValidateAgainstSchemas/> <w:SaveIfXMLInvalid>false</w:SaveIfXMLInvalid> <w:IgnoreMixedContent>false</w:IgnoreMixedContent> <w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText>false</w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText> <w:DoNotPromoteQF/> <w:LidThemeOther>EN-US</w:LidThemeOther> <w:LidThemeAsian>X-NONE</w:LidThemeAsian> <w:LidThemeComplexScript>X-NONE</w:LidThemeComplexScript> <w:Compatibility> <w:BreakWrappedTables/> <w:SnapToGridInCell/> <w:WrapTextWithPunct/> <w:UseAsianBreakRules/> <w:DontGrowAutofit/> <w:SplitPgBreakAndParaMark/> <w:DontVertAlignCellWithSp/> <w:DontBreakConstrainedForcedTables/> <w:DontVertAlignInTxbx/> <w:Word11KerningPairs/> <w:CachedColBalance/> </w:Compatibility> <w:DoNotOptimizeForBrowser/> <m:mathPr> <m:mathFont m:val="Cambria Math"/> <m:brkBin m:val="before"/> <m:brkBinSub m:val="--> <m:smallfrac m:val="off"> <m:dispdef> <m:lmargin m:val="0"> <m:rmargin m:val="0"> <m:defjc m:val="centerGroup"> <m:wrapindent m:val="1440"> <m:intlim m:val="subSup"> <m:narylim m:val="undOvr"> </m:narylim></m:intlim> </m:wrapindent><!--[endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:LatentStyles DefLockedState="false" DefUnhideWhenUsed="true"
DefSemiHidden="true" DefQFormat="false" DefPriority="99"
LatentStyleCount="267"> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="0" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Normal"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="heading 1"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 2"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 3"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 4"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 5"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 6"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 7"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 8"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 9"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 1"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 2"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 3"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 4"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 5"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 6"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 7"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 8"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 9"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="35" QFormat="true" Name="caption"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="10" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Title"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="1" Name="Default Paragraph Font"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="11" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Subtitle"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="22" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Strong"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="20" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Emphasis"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="59" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Table Grid"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Placeholder Text"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="1" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="No Spacing"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 1"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 1"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 1"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 1"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 1"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 1"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Revision"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="34" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="List Paragraph"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="29" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Quote"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="30" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Intense Quote"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 1"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 1"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 1"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 1"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List Accent 1"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 1"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 1"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 1"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 2"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 2"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 2"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 2"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 2"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 2"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 2"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 2"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 2"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 2"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List Accent 2"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 2"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 2"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 2"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 3"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 3"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 3"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 3"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 3"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 3"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 3"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 3"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 3"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 3"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List Accent 3"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 3"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 3"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 3"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 4"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 4"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 4"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 4"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 4"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 4"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 4"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 4"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 4"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 4"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List Accent 4"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 4"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 4"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 4"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 5"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 5"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 5"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 5"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 5"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 5"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 5"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 5"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 5"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 5"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List Accent 5"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 5"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 5"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 5"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 6"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 6"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 6"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 6"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 6"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 6"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 6"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 6"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 6"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 6"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List Accent 6"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 6"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 6"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 6"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="19" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Subtle Emphasis"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="21" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Intense Emphasis"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="31" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Subtle Reference"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="32" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Intense Reference"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="33" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Book Title"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="37" Name="Bibliography"/> <w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" QFormat="true" Name="TOC Heading"/> </w:LatentStyles> </xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 10]> <style>
/* Style Definitions */
table.MsoNormalTable
{mso-style-name:"Table Normal";
mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;
mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;
mso-style-noshow:yes;
mso-style-priority:99;
mso-style-qformat:yes;
mso-style-parent:"";
mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt;
mso-para-margin:0in;
mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt;
mso-pagination:widow-orphan;
font-size:11.0pt;
font-family:"Cambria","serif";
mso-ascii-font-family:Cambria;
mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin;
mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";
mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast;
mso-hansi-font-family:Cambria;
mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin;}
</style> <![endif]--><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 12pt;">Kjell Aleklett Professor of Physics and head of the Global Energy Systems Group at Uppsala University, Sweden says IEA is crying for help. Read article <a href="http://www.google.ca/url?sa=t&source=web&cd=1&ved=0CBgQFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.countercurrents.org%2Faleklett111110.htm&rct=j&q=World%20Energy%20Outlook%202010%20Aleklett&ei=vZEjTdSwJ8K-nAfli_HADg&usg=AFQjCNHZacu05ApHorul12vBuqxFBzUlpA&sig2=568j3s4OIqNYHyIGAdDtFQ&cad=rja">here</a>. </span></m:defjc></m:rmargin></m:lmargin></m:dispdef></m:smallfrac>Apogee Primehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17173826990836348454noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8373340269189991344.post-5338288791095653372011-01-04T13:30:00.000-08:002011-01-04T13:30:56.957-08:00RICHARD BRANSON SAYS CRUDE OIL PRICES MIGHT HIT $200 A BARREL<a href="http://www.google.ca/url?sa=t&source=web&cd=1&ved=0CBUQFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.bloomberg.com%2Fnews%2F2010-12-05%2Fbranson-says-oil-may-hit-200-a-barrel-without-new-clean-energy-policies.html&rct=j&q=BRANSON%20SAYS%20CRUDE%20OIL%20&ei=GZEjTZzoHILGnAf0ktzRDg&usg=AFQjCNGfIs-wE4JmdcAmJQJywnqz9jRQjQ&cad=rja">Article on Bloomberg citing British Billionaire predicting $200 a barrel. </a>Apogee Primehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17173826990836348454noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8373340269189991344.post-32185303272169146182011-01-03T06:53:00.000-08:002011-01-03T06:53:58.486-08:00Response of World Oil Production to Increasing PricesIn “Commentary : Will 2011 be a return to 2008 ?”Peak Oil Review. 12 / 20 / 2010,<br />
Gail Tverberg considered Non-OPEC and OPEC oil production over the period 2001-2010 and provided continuous traces of production as a function of oil price (See the<br />
attached). Some interesting trends emerge.<br />
Non-OPEC oil production is largely determined by resource/reserves, as opposed to politics and management. The Non-OPEC production response to oil prices above<br />
$50 is essentially flat, which indicatives that Non-OPEC production could not be<br />
expanded, primarily because of resource/reserves limitations. Thus, the Non-OPEC trace belies the belief of some economists that higher prices always provides a production increase in widgets & commodities. The data provides a strong indicator that Non-OPEC oil production is near its maximum, because price elasticity is essentially zero over the indicated time period. Phenomenologically, oil production increases are just offsetting production declines.<br />
The modest response of OPEC production is not easy to interpret, because OPEC is a cartel. Above the $50 range OPEC adjusted its excess capacity, and the cartel manipulated oil prices to a degree. Nevertheless, their production control did not have a very large overall impact on OPEC production.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjF7HeO107n4Vy5VgM942nD91B-cOK2NkLBj2bBvdURpzFhHSq0xMcCYD4lgkPCeC0sEzrmQg3roYVyRW49N93fn2i6obaXI28EuGIbyRR9bqAZ6gaBuNbqtBpVE0R7PvJG1Z15w_qbY_54/s1600/Oil+Production+vs+WTI+Price+2001-20102.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjF7HeO107n4Vy5VgM942nD91B-cOK2NkLBj2bBvdURpzFhHSq0xMcCYD4lgkPCeC0sEzrmQg3roYVyRW49N93fn2i6obaXI28EuGIbyRR9bqAZ6gaBuNbqtBpVE0R7PvJG1Z15w_qbY_54/s320/Oil+Production+vs+WTI+Price+2001-20102.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br />
Conclusion: Over the past decade increased oil prices did not materially<br />
increase oil production.<br />
R.L. Hirsch. December 23, 2010.Apogee Primehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17173826990836348454noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8373340269189991344.post-42820173377164962702011-01-03T06:49:00.000-08:002011-01-03T06:49:40.877-08:00Dr Jeremy Gilbert retired chief of BP comments on Peak OilPeak Oil is not a major discussion topic right now. The media and most people are concerned about other actual or potential crises, mainly economic, and they feel that action on the immediate is more urgent than the need to worry about energy supplies. There is a wider acceptance of the future world oil problem in Europe than in the US; certainly there are a number of EU politicians who are firm believers and who use the term 'peak oil' freely in speeches, without apparently feeling the need to provide justification and without provoking irrational responses. <br />
<br />
The world spare oil production capacity discussion is causing some confusion. People who have never spent time in an oil field have difficulty understanding how there can be so much uncertainty about companies' and countries' production capacity. Most of them are probably unaware that there is even quite a lot of uncertainty about individual producing units' actual production! <br />
<br />
I believe that the spare production capacity numbers that are generally quoted are grossly overstated and fail to recognize the practical problems associated with opening up wells or production facilities that have been closed-in for long periods. Such operations tend to be a lot more fraught than anticipated - perforations have become blocked; valves are stuck; lines are gas-locked, waxed or asphaltene-choked. All of these problems can be fixed, but they take time and they take people, and there are rarely spare people sitting around an oil-field just waiting for the order to bring production back up. It takes time, much more time than most estimates suggest.<br />
<br />
Dr. Jeremy Gilbert, retired BP Chief Petroleum Engineer. December 20, 2010.Apogee Primehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17173826990836348454noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8373340269189991344.post-28298194345542545222011-01-03T06:43:00.000-08:002011-01-03T06:43:13.853-08:00Robert Hirsch is interviewed by Carl Etnier on Peak OilOver the holidays Robert Hirsch was interviewed by Carl Etnier for WDEV Radio Vermont in Montpelier. Listen to the interview <a href="http://equaltimeradio.com/?q=node/305">here</a>.Apogee Primehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17173826990836348454noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8373340269189991344.post-88447577997251856112011-01-03T06:39:00.001-08:002011-01-03T06:39:51.797-08:00The peak oil crisis: 2011 – a pivotal year? by Tom WhippleInteresting new <a href="http://www.energybulletin.net/stories/2010-12-29/peak-oil-crisis-2011-%E2%80%93-pivotal-year">article </a>by Tom Whipple.Apogee Primehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17173826990836348454noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8373340269189991344.post-20860627830690938082010-12-31T14:09:00.001-08:002010-12-31T14:09:30.108-08:00New Review of "The Impending World Energy Mess"The website <a href="http://www.biofuelwar.com/2010/12/book-review-%E2%80%93-the-impending-world-energy-mess/">biofuelwar.com</a> reviews "The Impending World Energy Mess".Apogee Primehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17173826990836348454noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8373340269189991344.post-83750231872655975082010-12-23T13:01:00.000-08:002010-12-23T13:01:39.732-08:00Robert Hirsch interview "Best" in 2010<b>Matthieu Auzanneau's interview with author Robert L. Hirsch makes top ten "best of" moments on <a href="http://www.energybulletin.net/stories/2010-12-20/best-eb-2010">Energy Bulletin site</a>. Read the interview with Dr Hirsch <a href="http://www.energybulletin.net/stories/2010-09-16/exclusive-interview-robert-hirsch">here</a>. </b>Apogee Primehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17173826990836348454noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8373340269189991344.post-52380233273748725062010-12-06T06:30:00.000-08:002010-12-06T06:30:26.227-08:00Consumer Energy Report Review of The Impending World Energy MessRobert Rapier posts <a href="http://www.consumerenergyreport.com/2010/12/04/book-review-the-impending-world-energy-mess/">review </a>of "The Impending World Energy Mess". The review sparks debate over alternative energy and climate change.Apogee Primehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17173826990836348454noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8373340269189991344.post-69170048974150691202010-12-02T08:39:00.000-08:002010-12-02T08:39:51.280-08:00New offshore licenses for exploration suspendedUS government backs off from offshore drilling <a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB20001424052748704594804575648623586731384.html">again</a>. The Wall Street Journal implies that future election politics played a big part in the decision. The article also implies that the Alaskan reserves are still in the multi-billion barrel range despite recent USGS reports downgrading the resource to only several hundred million barrels.Apogee Primehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17173826990836348454noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8373340269189991344.post-89937386714445319802010-11-23T08:59:00.000-08:002010-11-23T08:59:36.127-08:00Robert Hirsch responds to Frank Kaminski's review of The Impending World Energy Mess<b>Kaminski:</b> <i>“First it was his insistence that we must frantically develop liquid fuels from every feasible alternative source–including from environmentally ruinous coal, bitumen and tar sands–if we are to have any hope of effectively dealing with conventional oil depletion. Peak oil activist Rob Hopkins rightly called this stand "profoundly repugnant."”</i><br />
<br />
<b>Hirsch: </b> Either we were not clear or Kaminski did not understand our view that the onset of decline in world oil production will trigger a worldwide recession, which will deepen each year. Think about shutting down large fractions of autos, trucks, buses, trains, ships, airplanes, etc. Society will change dramatically, making this current recession look like the good times. <br />
<br />
Our view is that it is imperative that<i> liquid fuels</i> be provided to get economies back up and running. He implies that the world could quickly shift to clean energy sources, but he doesn’t appreciate that this will take decades and be very costly. In a deepening oil-induced recession, available money will dry up quickly. We will have to get economies back up and running, which is why we emphasized the technologies that we did – <i>Liquid fuel technologies</i>.<br />
<br />
<b>Kaminski:</b> <i>“And then, during the recent recession, he pleaded for peak oilers to temporarily keep quiet because if public awareness of oil depletion were added to existing woes, "the added trauma could be unthinkable." Grist columnist Joe Romm aptly described this as "an incredibly dumb 'You can't handle the truth!' memo." Hirsch's latest stunt takes the form of a book titled The Impending World Energy Mess, which includes a shoddily and lazily put together case for being skeptical about climate change—one that's already been thoroughly discredited. Astonishing indeed have been Hirsch's antics.”</i><br />
<br />
<b>Hirsch:</b> Our book was eight years in the making. We felt that it reasonably and carefully presented the issues. Yes, I did suggest that peak oilers cool it for the time being, because people were dealing with the Great Recession. The truth did not go away; it just didn’t get shouted from the rooftops. I don’t know whether anyone did anything differently as a result of my SUGGESTION. I do know that the U.K. industrial committee did its work anyway and came out with two killer studies, which the British government is apparently taking very seriously. Maybe I made a mistake, but I never thought of hiding the truth; my efforts for the last eight years have been aimed at developing truths related to world oil.<br />
<br />
<b>Kaminski:</b> <i>“Excluded from the list of mitigation options are nuclear, wind, shale oil, photovoltaics and biomass-to-liquids. The authors explain that shale oil isn't yet commercial; biomass-to-liquids fuels aren't viable without government mandates; and wind, nuclear and photovoltaics produce electricity, not liquid fuels. The authors also don't see much promise in electrifying railways or converting homes and commercial buildings to natural gas/electric heating. Electrifying railways would free up only a trivial amount of additional fuel–in the United States, it would come to 0.3 million barrels per day, or less than one and a half percent of current daily consumption. And the problem with switching buildings to natural gas/electric heating is that the substantial costs of doing this would have to be born by property owners, who will want to do everything in their power to tighten their belts as economic recession deepens."</i><br />
<br />
<b>Hirsch: </b> We tried to make it clear that world oil production decline will result in a world <i>liquid fuels problem</i>, because of the sheer magnitude of the existing fleets of oil product-consuming machinery. In the near-term they won’t operate without oil products – period – at the moment I can’t operate my car on anything but gasoline. Electric power will not power <i>existing </i>cars or buses or airplanes or ships.<br />
<br />
<b>Kaminski:</b> <i>"Will many readers be offended by the remarks about climate science?</i>"<br />
<br />
<b>Hirsch:</b> Will many readers be offended by the truth about the “climate science” situation? It is a mess, which is what we said. It is not established science. It may be established religion<br />
<br />
<b>Kaminski: </b><i>“Suffice it to say that the book contains a good deal of other, non-climate-change-related material that is worth a read by both general readers and peak oilers.”</i><br />
<br />
<b>Hirsch:</b> Thank you.<br />
<br />
<br />
Dr Robert Hirsch (Principal Author - The Impending World Energy Mess)Apogee Primehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17173826990836348454noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8373340269189991344.post-15758671181029555282010-11-19T12:15:00.000-08:002010-11-19T12:15:01.946-08:00Richard Branson and BP speak out about falling oil reserves<h1 class="h s-1"><a href="http://www.bnet.com/blog/clean-energy/branson-group-bp-gulf-spill-will-make-the-8220peak-oil-8221-crisis-worse/3180"><span style="font-size: small;">Branson Group: BP Gulf Spill Will Make the “Peak Oil” Crisis Worse</span></a></h1>Apogee Primehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17173826990836348454noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8373340269189991344.post-62365327694574983892010-11-17T07:38:00.000-08:002010-11-17T07:38:45.631-08:00Author Roger Bezdek responds to Frank Kaminski reviewThere appear to be two major criticisms of the book in this <a href="http://mudcitypress.com/energymess.html">review</a>. First, the reviewer takes some gratuitous potshots at one of the authors (Dr. Robert Hirsch); e.g. “what outlandish thing will he propose next!. This criticism is trite and not worth responding to. <br />
<br />
Second, the reviewer appears to be a true believer in the theory of anthropogenic global warming (AGW) and is “aghast” that the authors would have the audacity to question the AGW gospel. As the authors noted in the book, AGW has become more of a religion than a scientific theory, and this reviewer’s accusation of heresy proves the point. Since it is useless to try and argue religion with a true believer, no attempt will be made here. <br />
<br />
The rest of the review is a fairly accurate discussion of some of the major points made in the book, and it is not clear that the reviewer has many problems with these. His mention of the precautionary principle is germane. The world is facing a serious imbalance of oil supply and demand in the near future and the precautionary principle argues that this must be addressed immediately. This, indeed, is the major point of the book, and it lays out the pros and cons of various options that will have to be employed for the world to avoid economic, political, and social catastrophe. These are hard, irrefutable facts and the authors note that many people will be very uncomfortable when confronted with these. This reviewer is apparently one of these people – but there will be many, many more. This book does not make for pleasant reading and its message is, of necessity, highly disturbing. It is not for the fainthearted.<br />
<br />
<a href="http://www.apogeeprime.com/prime/bookpages/9781926837116main.html">Dr Roger Bezdek</a> (Co-Author - The Impending World Energy Mess)Apogee Primehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17173826990836348454noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8373340269189991344.post-18156272002690891312010-11-16T08:55:00.000-08:002010-11-16T14:07:08.035-08:00Robert Hirsch discusses man-made Climate ChangeRobert Hirsch, principal author of "The Impending World Energy Mess" discusses the chapter in his book about climate change. (See video at right)Apogee Primehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17173826990836348454noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8373340269189991344.post-29528162773627091162010-11-16T07:27:00.000-08:002010-11-16T07:27:45.038-08:00New Review by Frank KaminskiFrank Kaminski, prominent writer on Peak Oil takes issue with climate change chapter in "The Impending World Energy Mess". Read review <a href="http://mudcitypress.com/energymess.html">here</a>.Apogee Primehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17173826990836348454noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8373340269189991344.post-3207535500478539242010-11-08T08:50:00.000-08:002010-11-08T08:50:32.897-08:00BP Chief Petroleum Engineer Jeremy Gilbert Talks about Peak Oil<span class="Apple-style-span" style="border-collapse: separate; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="color: #1f497d; font-family: Calibri,sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;">A very <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/former-bp-exec-jeremy-gilbert-just-shot-down-every-argument-against-peak-oil-2010-11">interesting presentation</a> by</span><span style="color: #1f497d; font-family: Calibri,sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;"><span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span><span style="color: #1f497d; font-family: Calibri,sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;">former BP Chief Petroleum Engineer Jeremy Gilbert</span><span style="color: #1f497d; font-family: Calibri,sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;"> that provides support to Robert Hirsch’s position and, in fact, references Hirsch in the last slide.</span></span>Apogee Primehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17173826990836348454noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8373340269189991344.post-48116798852052697692010-11-05T06:32:00.000-07:002010-11-05T06:32:35.190-07:00Bruce Soltani interviews Dr James Schlesinger at ASPOBruce Soltani interviews ex-Secretary of Energy <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XSInuNxd0gI">Dr James Schlesinger</a> at the 2010 ASPO conference. Dr Schlesinger provided the Foreword for "The Impending World Energy Mess".Apogee Primehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17173826990836348454noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8373340269189991344.post-33996432083005597312010-11-01T09:07:00.001-07:002010-11-01T09:07:57.553-07:00Green Energy with Robert L. Hirsch Author of Impending World Energy Mess<a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DYwub7VqNgc">New video of Robert L. Hirsch discusses Green Energy alternatives. </a>Apogee Primehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17173826990836348454noreply@blogger.com0